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January 24, 2012

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HuwOS

Not to mention, seeing as you didn't the initial invasion of Afghanistan as well.

Trumped up justifications and claims that the other side are just too unreasonable, irrational to trust while all the time the Afghans were asking for reasonable and sane behaviour, offering solutions that met all reasonable requests but being ignored and demonised.

Pretty much identical really.

Paul Flynn

Thanks DG and rwendland. There is a seemingly inevitable momentum is the drift to war. It is very reminiscent on the start of the 2nd Iraq War and the Helmand incursion.

DG

Also, perhaps someone with more knowledge than me could speculate on how helpful having troops in Helmand province might be in any upcoming conflict with Iran. But maybe that's a cynical step too far.

DG

It'd be good for Obama, I think - democracies don't usually switch leaders mid-conflict, and he's too vulnerable to the rabid sections of the right using the "Muslim-lover" label to put up much resistance.

Wider conflict doesn't bother the war-mongers and there are parts of Europe that'd be happy to cool relations with Turkey, too. Would make it easier to keep them out of the EU.

So, much as I'd love to be proven wrong, I suspect too many greedy, grubbing b'stards - on both sides - can see the bright side for it to go any other way :(

rwendland

I really hope not DG. But you're right, the media hype in the west is certainly running that way. Would Obama really want a messy war before his election?

This won't be as contained as Iraq, and the effect on the opinions of Egyptian and other north African populations will probably be highly negative to the west. Not to mention the Turkish population. Egypt and Turkey are likely to become leading lights in the Arab world, and we should reflect on how this will play there.

BTW if anyone wants a good international law brief on the position of the IAEA re Iran, this is a good one, quite contrary to how it is usually played in our press:

http://jurist.law.pitt.edu/forum/2011/11/dan-joyner-iaea-report.php

"Iran's Nuclear Program and the Legal Mandate of the IAEA"

DG

Looks like we're going to war again, whether we like it or not.

rwendland

Re Iran, Patrick Cockburn's analysis in The Independent today seems to me to be spot on:

http://www.independent.co.uk/opinion/commentators/patrick-cockburn-sanctions-can-only-deepen-the-iran-crisis-6296132.html

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