The mapmakers are busy drawing the new boundaries that could transform the political map of Wales.
The drop from 40 Welsh MPs to 30 is the biggest change ever. Almost every seat in Wales will be changed because of the knock-on effects that a change in Newport could affect the boundaries in Anglesey. There is fascinating speculation that the change will hit the Lib-Dems harder than Labour or the Conservatives.
The initial speculative proposal for Newport West, Newport East and Monmouth is to shrink three constituencies into two. It seems a likely one. Newport West is expected to become largely urban with the loss of semi-rural areas. Newport East may disappear and Monmouth will expand into the Newport east.
That will leave an intriguing selection for the two seats. On the Labour side I and Jessica Morden will be available as aspirant candidates. David Davies is certain to want to stand for a seat that will be mainly his previous one. The new Newport urban seat is likely to be a safer Labour one than the two existing seats. The boundaries will be similar to the previous Newport seat that was Labour from 1945 until it disappeared in 1983. The combined Monmouth/Newport seat is likely to be a marginal one. In a good year for Labour, as 2015 will be, Labour should win it.
There is also the possibility that the LibDems and Tories who face their P45s might revolt in 2013 and postpone everything to 2020.
The new proposed boundaries will be announced in September. Prepare for exciting times.
Sunflowers delight
Well done to those who have planted a bed of sunflowers around the slope at Ridgeway, Allt yr yn Newport.
Missing my exercise of being called to vote at regular intervals, Newport's Double-View beauty spot is where I take my evening walk.The weather has been so good that it has been possible to walk every evening of the parliamentary recess. Even better weather ahead.
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