Paul Flynn - Read My Day

Balance sheet of war

Asset: Saddam Hussein has gone

Debits: 100,000 Iraqis killed, 4500 US soldiers dead, $750 billion spent; 3 million Iraqis in local or foreign exile: US and GB world reputations as peace makers damaged.

 

Heads win

Although the heart pulls a different way, the head rules. My vote is for David Miliband’s mental dexterity, gravitas and intellect. He will be the runaway victor in the General Election TV debates in 2015

Circular Argument

Deputy Prime Minister Nick Clegg has insisted the military campaign in Afghanistan is "turning the corner".

Oh yeah. I have heard this from Government ministers at every debate about Afghanistan since 2006. We have turned so many corners we have been round the block a dozen times - still we remain in Hell.

Grippe Porcine

Menaces sur les vaccinations après le feuilleton H1N1

31/08/2010 - Les Echos / France

Après le fiasco de la campagne de vaccination contre la « fausse pandémie » de grippe due au virus H1N1, les spécialistes de la santé publique veulent réconcilier les Français avec les vaccins avant l'arrivée des infections hivernales. La calamiteuse campagne de vaccination contre le H1N1 n'a fait que confirmer et amplifier une tendance fâcheuse. » Le docteur Robert Cohen, pédiatre et coordonnateur du réseau InfoVac au centre hospitalier de Créteil, va reprendre son bâton de pèlerin.   . La rentrée des classes et le retour inéluctable de la grippe saisonnière et des infections hivernales vont probablement relancer le débat sur la vaccination. Médecins et pédiatres vont se retrouver en première ligne face aux critiques des patients et des parents, qui ne manqueront pas de leur rappeler les épisodes du feuilleton H1N1. Le rapport du Sénat sur la « fausse pandémie » publié début août est très sévère avec le gouvernement français et l'Organisation mondiale de la santé (OMS), accusés de « pensée unique ayant conduit à une forte surestimation des risques ». Ce document dénonce pêle-mêle des « achats démesurés », le « défaut d'association des généralistes » et les « conflits d'intérêts entre experts et industriels ». Les sénateurs Alain Milon (UMP) et François Autain (communiste), auteurs du rapport et tous deux médecins, estiment que les décideurs ont été aveuglés par les « scénarios du pire » et influencés par des fabricants de vaccins « en situation d'oligopole ». Les industriels ont par ailleurs profité de la panique pour transférer à l'Etat français leurs responsabilités sanitaires sur les éventuels produits défectueux. En France, 5,35 millions de personnes ont été immunisées contre le H1N1 (8,23 % de la population), contre environ 10 % en Allemagne, 25 % aux Etats-Unis et près de 65 % en Suède. La campagne a entraîné des ventes mondiales de vaccins estimées entre 5 et 6 milliards de dollars. Chute de la confiance Une autre enquête rédigée par l'Assemblée parlementaire du Conseil de l'Europe est tout aussi critique avec les institutions. Selon le rapporteur de la mission, le Britannique Paul Flynn (groupe socialiste), « de graves lacunes ont été identifiées en ce qui concerne la transparence des processus de décision ». Ce document s'inquiète aussi d'une « chute de la confiance accordée aux conseils prodigués par les organismes de santé publique ». Une crainte justifiée : près de 40 % des Français estiment que le vaccin anti-H1N1 « n'était pas sûr ». Résultat de cette ac cumulation de maladresses : les péripéties politico-sanitaires du H1N1 sont, selon Robert Cohen, un mauvais coup porté au « pivot de la lutte contre les maladies infectieuses ». David Abiker, à l'époque chroniqueur sur France Info, a suivi l'affaire en analysant le buzz sur Internet. « Cette crise marque la déroute des experts. Les Français ont rejeté la communication officielle et appliqué le principe de précaution au carré », estime cet observateur de la galaxie du Web, pour qui Internet « donne une prime à la dérision et à la rumeur ». Selon Jacques Attali, lui aussi témoin intéressé des événements, il s'agit d'une nouvelle preuve de « la perte de confiance dans les élites d'une société de plus en plus individualiste ». Ces réactions de défiance inquiètent le médecin spécialiste en santé publique Yves Charpak : « Lutter contre un virus envahisseur est une guerre collective. Ne pas se vacciner est un comportement égoïste. » C'est dans ce contexte que les missionnaires de la santé vont devoir reprendre la parole avant l'arrivée des premiers frimas. Un exercice d'autant plus difficile que la vaccination possède trois caractéristiques qui brouillent son image : elle s'adresse à des bienportants, sa protection est imparfaite et il provoque des effets indésirables. « C'est un produit biologique complètement différent du médicament. Son efficacité varie selon la maladie et les patients. Cette incertitude est difficile à gérer », admet le docteur Benoît Soubeyrand, directeur médical de Sanofi Pasteur MSD. En fait, l'acte vaccinal procure une double prévention : il assure une protection individuelle (je prépare mon système immunitaire à une menace) et constitue un bouclier collectif (en me protégeant, je préserve mon entourage). L'ennui c'est que cette belle logique, qui combine individualisme et altruisme, ne marche pas à tous les coups. Il faut introduire un peu de statistiques pour comprendre la stratégie des épidémiologistes. Effet troupeau Un agent infectieux (virus, bactérie ou parasite) est caractérisé par sa virulence et sa contagiosité. Un enfant malade de la rougeole ou de la coqueluche contamine en moyenne une quinzaine de personnes autour de lui, contre environ deux s'il est infecté par un virus de la grippe. Mais l'efficacité d'un vaccin n'atteint jamais 100 %. Les meilleurs (rougeole) sont proches de 95 %, alors que les moins bons (grippe) descendent certaines années à 60 %. La maîtrise d'une épidémie exige donc une riposte de type militaire : plus une maladie est contagieuse et plus il faut vacciner de grandes populations rapidement pour couper la route au pathogène. « C'est pour obtenir l'effet troupeau », résume Robert Cohen. Les effets indésirables sont l'autre point faible du procédé. Ils sont toujours très mal supportés par le public qui accepte difficilement de courir un risque avec un traitement préventif. De surcroît, le risque perçu n'a souvent rien à voir avec le risque réel. Selon une étude finlandaise portant sur 581 paires de jumeaux, la majorité des problèmes postvaccination ne sont pas des réactions secondaires, mais des événements intercurrents (liés temporellement à la vaccination, mais sans relation causale). Mais les clichés et les superstitions ont la vie dure et personne n'aime les mauvaises nouvelles. Celui qui se casse la jambe le lendemain d'une vaccination sera tenté de relier les deux événements et d'imputer son malheur aux héritiers de Pasteur. En revanche, s'il gagne au Loto, il mettra cela sur le compte de sa bonne étoile. ALAIN PEREZ

 

 

Newport Bank Holiday

 

 

 

 

Rogerstone Village Fete

 

 

 

 

 
 
 
 
 

  
 
 

 

Dis-illusionment's early dawn.

The waning morale-sapped band of Tory bloggers jerked themselves into mildly abusive mode about NHS Direct. It must be party loyalty.

Checking with the company I had today, I found nothing but praise. A surprising number of people have used the service. The frequently repeated adjective was ‘reassuring.’

Several people told of anxiety lifted after a telephone conversation with a professional. One praised the warning that symptoms needed more attention. This was Frank Dobson’s baby when he was the health supremo. It was the most worthwhile NHS initiative in recent years.

Are the Tories becoming accident-prone? I thought their honeymoon would be good for a year. Already I have solid local Tories erupting about the broken election promises. The Equitable Life victims feel cheated out the full compensation promised in the election. More disillusionment is to come. Some even believed that all new cancer drugs would be freely available for all ailments under the Tories. One terminally ill constituent of mine has some bitter comments today.

Welcome to Government.

 Mice wise

A valued friend of mine, the poet Ann Drysdale, sent this poem to my blog this morning. It is based on the blog about dormice. Thanks Ann.

 

The Dormouse Bridge

Nobody knows it’s for dormice,


the catenary over the road,


for although many people deplore mice


It’s erected especially for mice,


albeit not fieldmice and floormice


or even for my mice and your mice 


(the invisible, secretive-spoor mice)


 

No.
Its use is exclusive to dormice 


(the dear little save-up-and-store mice,


the sleep-through-the-winter-and-snore mice,


the tiny, too timid to roar mice).


It’s there to enable the poor mice


to get into contact with more mice


on the opposite side of the road

without 


getting 


squished.

 

 Bad science

Yesterday I turned down the chance to comment on today’s Mail on Sunday front-page story. I feared that one case of compensation for possible serious adverse effects of MMR would be hailed as proof of serious danger.

The case is a sad one of a boy who developed epilepsy after an MMR jab 18 years ago. Tens of millions of other children have had the triple vaccine with no ill effects. One of three people who awarded compensation believed that the child was pre-disposed towards epilepsy and the jab might have triggered it. The other two disagreed. The Mail’s treatment was not as hysterical as I expected. Thankfully cricket dominated today’s headlines and little attention was given to the report.

If the Mail is looking for a worrying real story they could follow two concerns on the Swine Flu vaccine that was not fully trialled. From Australia there are reports of babies having fits and cases of narcolepsy are reported from Switzerland and other parts of Europe.

Nothing has yet been proved. But these concerns reinforce the wisdom of Poland’s decision not to mass vaccinate their population.

Hugh Richards

The sad news came in an e-mail this morning. Hugh Richards died yesterday. A message from his wife Mag read. 'He died  at home. However, it was a peaceful death in his own bed listening to music. I know you will be upset as we all 'go back a long way'. 

Hugh had written to his close friends a few weeks ago explaining that his bone marrow cancer was terminal. In my recent book The Unusual Suspect I wrote about the first time I met Hugh and Mag.

' I had linked up in April 1980 with organic farmer Peter Segar and environmentalists Hugh and Mag Richards to found the Welsh Anti-Nuclear Alliance (WANA). The Welsh Anti-Nuclear Campaign would have been a better title but the acronym was problematic.  

WANA was a respite from my work as a councillor. It was pure joy to co- 

operate with people who were driven by unselfish idealistic convictions, 

free from ambition for office or civic regard. WANA was incredibly 

successful. A tiny group of bright people measurably changed public 

opinion in Wales on nuclear power. The campaign to persuade all Welsh 

local authorities to declare themselves to be ‘nuclear-free zones’ was 

brilliantly conceived and executed. WANA was also profitable, through 

selling badges and car stickers. A rare achievement for a protest group'.

Hugh has kept the anti-nuclear movement inspired and informed for 30 years. He was tireless, resourceful and a brilliant researcher. He was also a wonderful, affable and entertaining companion. WANA achieved great things, changed the opinion of the Welsh nation and was commercially successful. Only once can I remember  Hugh express some exasperation at a task that WANA gave to him. To illustrate the resurgence of the spirit on Wales after the demise of coal we staged a stunt in which a dragon emerged from an egg discovered in a Welsh deep mine. Ordering an inflatable giant dragon was simple.   Hugh task was tricky.  He rang me and asked 'How exactly do you make a 12 foot high egg?' I didn't  help, Hugh managed. The dragon emerged triumphantly as arranged at a Welsh Pit from Hugh's magnificent egg. 

This letter from his friends was sent to Hugh a few weeks ago. Mag said he greatly appreciated the sentiments.

We are all deeply sad to hear your news. The combination of fortitude, pragmatism and resignation you have shown these past few years has been impressive and inspirational.

 

Over this time you have managed to sustain a prodigious contribution to the anti-nuclear movement. We are especially appreciative that you have generously shared  your analysis  widely, which has  proved invaluable. Your work on repository footprint, spent fuel management and high burn up fuel is based on careful research and thoughtful analysis. It has demonstrated that the nuclear industry’s plans for long-term management of new build wastes are quite literally unsustainable. This work is seminal and will continue to play a major part in undermining the scientific and ethical basis for any expansion of the nuclear industry.

 

We want you to know how much your work is appreciated by those of us who are campaigning against the further development of the nuclear industry and its plans for nuclear waste management. We intend to ensure that its influence on the debate continues undiminished even if you are unable to continue your work. Your legacy may well have a long half-life.

 

Many of us have come to know and appreciate you, not only as a doughty and indefatigable campaigner but as a person - for your humour, your guts and above all your humanity.

 

We intend to mark the work you have done by a lecture in your name.  We think this is an appropriate way to give some continuity to your efforts. But, in other ways, too, inspired by your example, we intend to carry the fight to a successful conclusion.  We know this is your greatest wish.

 

We also recognise the tremendous support that Maggs has given you throughout this difficult time which has contributed so much to your ability to continue your work.

 

Hugh, thank you for everything you have done to help make the world a better place.  It has been truly a pleasure and a privilege to know you.

 

In gratitude from

 

Andy Blowers, Pete Wilkinson, David Lowry, Rachel Western, Phil Davies, Jill Sutcliffe, Val Mainwood & Pete Roche

(Nuclear Waste Advisory Associates)

 

Crispin Aubrey

Kate Hudson, CND

Dawn Rothwell, CND

Jill Gough, CND Cymru

Chris Gifford

Paul Flynn MP

Max Wallis

June Birch, Inside Outsider Publications 

Phil Steele, PAWB

Linda Rogers, PAWB

Sioned Huws, PAWB

Carl Iwan Clowes, PAWB

Gerry Wolff, Energy Fair

Deborah Ardizzone

Jean Mcsorely, Greenpeace

Ben Ayliffe, Greenpeace

Kenny MacDougall, Hunterston Site stakeholders group 

Marianne Birkby, Radiation Free Lakeland

Bill Howard, BNFL Decommissioning Dialogue 

Helen Wallace, Genewatch

An illustration of Hugh's campaigning influence is in this story.

 Jane Davidson calls for public inquiry into nuclear power

Aug 14 2009 by Martin Shipton, Western Mail

ENVIRONMENT Minister Jane Davidson has thrown down the gauntlet to the UK Government by calling for a public inquiry into plans that could see a new nuclear power station built in Wales.

The UK Government’s Department of Energy and Climate Change, which backs new nuclear power plants and will decide whether they should be built, is considering whether a public inquiry is necessary.

In Anglesey, there is strong support for a new nuclear power station at Wylfa, where an existing facility is being decommissioned. But environmentalists have serious concerns about the storage of nuclear waste.

In a letter to Hugh Richards, a leading member of the campaign group WANA (the Welsh Anti- Nuclear Alliance), Ms Davidson said that she is prepared to support his call for a public inquiry.

She said that while she has no power to call a public inquiry relating to nuclear issues herself, she does have the right to make representations to the UK Secretary of State.

“You will be aware that DECC has recently consulted on an application by the Nuclear Industry Association for EU regulatory justification of new nuclear reactor designs in the UK,” she stated.

“I have carefully considered the points raised in that consultation and other matters and I have written to the DECC Minister supporting a public inquiry for the proposed new nuclear reactors on the grounds of concerns over the safety and security of the management of future radioactive waste.”

A spokesman for DECC said that Energy Minister Lord Hunt has replied to Ms Davidson’s letter and would not make a final decision on holding a public inquiry until the end of the regulatory process.

He said: “Lord Hunt has replied to Jane Davidson, outlining the following points:

Justification regulations provide for an inquiry or other hearing as one of a range of possible steps which the Secretary of State can take if he considers it expedient to do so in connection with the exercise of any of his functions under the regulations;

We have received a number of calls for a public inquiry as part of the regulatory justification process and have considered them carefully;

At this stage, we have not concluded that it is necessary to hold an inquiry or other hearing as part of the regulatory justification process;

However, we will continue to keep this under review during the rest of the process, including when we consider responses to the consultation on the justifying authority’s proposed decision later this year, and do not propose to make a final decision on holding an inquiry or other hearing until the end of the process.”

Mr Richards said: “We are very pleased that Jane Davidson has made representations to DECC saying there should be a public inquiry. In doing so, she is seeking to insist on due diligence.

“DECC is in a difficult legal position. If it does not call a public inquiry, it will open itself up to legal challenge.

“One of the very serious concerns is that the kind of reactors being proposed would require nuclear waste to cool down for a century before it could be stored underground. It is vital that these issues are properly debated in a public forum – and that means there must be a public inquiry.

On a blog last year I gave an example of Hugh's work:

A trillion seconds

This is staggering. We politicians glibly use the word 'trillion' without really knowing what those lines of zeros mean. My friend Hugh Richards has helpfully explained.

A guide to the use of language at the G20.

 

What's the difference between a million, a billion, a trillion?

 

A million seconds is 11.57 days.

 

A billion seconds is 31 years.

 

A trillion seconds is 31,688 years.Western civilisation has not been around a trillion seconds. 

 

One trillion seconds ago - 31,688 years was well before the peak of the last

ice age (20,000 years ago).

 

A million minutes ago was - 1 year, 329 days, 10 hours and 40 minutes ago.

 

A billion minutes ago was just after the time of Christ.

 

A trillion minutes ago was 1,901,280 years ago, Homo Erectus was just

emerging, and lasted a further 1,500,000 years. Homo Sapiens started to develop about 100,000 years ago.

 

A trillion pounds is so large a number that only politicians can use the term in conversation... probably because they seldom think about what they are really saying. 

 

If they start using the T word, we are in very deep trouble.

Strength boast proves weakness

William Hague went to Afghanistan. A fortnight later so did David Cameron.

On separate days they reported back to the House so that we backbench MPs could question them. Hague reported:

‘Optimism. Brave soldiers. Taliban on the run. More optimism. Afghan Army and Police getting ready. Shame about the casualties. But above all else optimism.’

Cameron breezily reported:

‘Optimism. Brave soldiers. English footie team for the World Cup. Taliban on the run. More optimism. Afghan Army and Police getting ready. Shame about the casualties. But above all else optimism.’

Neither said a word in their lengthy reports about the most significant events of their trips. Neither could complete their carefully planned itineries. They had to cancel their main destinations because of the strength of the Taliban threat. Trips designed to prove our strength, demonstrated our weakness.

Only today are we told that the attempt on Cameron’s life on June 10 was "much closer than anyone said at the time". But no one said a word then.

Does anyone still believe that the Government is not in denial about Afghanistan?

 

Flight off

Sadly it’s ‘no’ to Costa Rica. I’ve never been there and the invitation to address an international symposium on Swine Flu was almost irresistible. It’s taking place when parliament is in recess and there would be no expenses to the British taxpayer. I was tempted to accept and to put across of case for the truth on the pandemic that never was.

The event clashes with another invitation to address the English Speaking Union in Strasbourg on the same issue and push this at other causes in the Council of Europe (COE).

Yesterday I saw the programme for Costa Rica. Also speaking is German former MP Wolfgang Wodarch. He preceded me as Chair of the COE Health subcommittee. He will make the same contribution as mine. I asked myself the wartime question  ‘Is my journey really necessary? Does the environment deserve it? There is only one answer. 

It’s Adios Costa Rica. Hasta la Vista.

 

 

Ghosts of sleaze past

How invigorating it is to welcome back the ghosts of Tory sleaze.

Mates, Asil Nadir and Parkinson flittered across our televison screens today churning up revuslsion at Tory blushes of the past. How long do we have to wait for Mellor and Archer to stage comebacks? This is not to say that Asil Nadir has ever done anything wrong. His flight to Northern Cyprus when faced with criminal charge is typical behaviour of innocents, especially those who have been let down by the 'buggers.' I have fond memories of Michael Mates' personal statement to the House that terminated his political persona. Good to see it replayed in the media today.

Proving that the anti-sleaze message has not reached the Tory party is a brand new CASH For Access stunt. Executives who buy £1,000-a-plate tickets to a fund-raising dinner at the Conservative Party conference will get to sit with ministers. Despite David Cameron's pledges to bring transparency to party funding, the identities of the businessmen will be kept secret. Of course. That will prove that the Tories are hiding nothing. The process is called transparency through secrecy. I hope you are paying attention to this fresh new century concept.

We in Labour used to do a bit of this in the bad old days. I objected then and never attended any fundraisng dinners. But the lesson has not been learned. The inaugural Conservative Party Business Dinner is being marketed as "an exclusive networking event" where guests will "enjoy fine wines and superb food with fellow business leaders" or more accurately spend cash to buy access.

Sleaze is re-born. Election promises disappear like the morning mist.

Chinese invasion certain

Welcome callers at my home today were Shanshan Yang and Su Dong.  Shanshan is the reporter and Su the cameraman. They work for China Central Television, which enjoys mega-million audiences in several languages.

 

Shanshan had a thorough knowledge of my Council of Europe (COE) report on the Swine Flu Pandemic that never was. She told me that China followed the world panic but developed their own vaccine. They are baffled about the giant-sized scare and the protozoan-sized outcome. Past experience has proved that why an interview of this kind is broadcast, a dozen other news outlets will contact me to repeat it for their channels. I am braced for the calls. I look forward to dealing with this Chinese invasion.

 

The interest in the COE is worldwide as Australia and Canada recently proved. The only country where it remains under-reported is the UK. I am still seeking a debate in parliament and meetings with British ministers.

 

Poor abuse

The fawning press has been starry-eyed about the coalition honeymoon. They could not ignore today’s authoritative report that proves that the coalition budget was designed by millionaires for millionaires and stuffed the poor.

The increase of VAT would be better described as the ‘Pensioners’ Tax’ as it hits the poor proportionately harder than the rich. The Tories got away with the half-lie that NI increases were tax on jobs. The ‘death-tax’ jibe destroyed the only practical solution on offer for funding residential care for the elderly. When will they produce their own remedy? Bet, it will be similar to the derided death tax.

ITV Wales monthly poll is consoling for Labour and terrifying for Lib-Dems. Labour have soared from 32% in May to 39%, Tories and Plaid have plateau-ed on 21% to 22% and 22% to 23%. The LibDems have slumped from 20% to 10%.

That was before this alluring picture of Mohammed Ashgar AM was widely published. Once a member of the Labour Party, he joined Plaid became an AM under the assisted places scheme and then defected to the Tory Party.

 

It can only get worse.

 

Wouldn't happen to a Top Tory

 

Only the second Labour Leadership Candidate to visit Newport was in the city today.

Although my loyalties are elsewhere, I went along to the Ringland Club as a courtesy to give Andy Burnham a word of welcome. Although this well-run plush club is in Newport East, I had a hand in setting it up as a founder member nearly 30 years ago. It’s a fine example of practical socialism in action.

   
 

Andy was engaging. He was bursting with pride that the launch of his manifesto ‘Aspirational Socialism’ yesterday because the second biggest topic on Twitter. One vivid anecdote struck home with me. In answer to a question about residential care he talked with obvious emotion above his dreadful experience with a loved one at the mercy of a ‘caring’ service.  ‘Her things were being stolen’ he said. ‘The last straw was a day when I noticed that her fingers were bruised. Someone had hurt her by pulling her engagement ring off her finger.’

It’s an experience none of us would ever forget. It’s also a dividing line. I’m sure no Top Tory would ever have a loved one in a home when the staff routinely robbed the patients.

 

 

Treasure Trove

It was do-nuts all round yesterday to boost the moral the volunteer workers at the Roman Remains dig at Caerleon. It’s exhausting work and a bit demoralising in the rain.

   
 

The remains uncovered are promising. There is evidence that the roman urban area was much bigger than previously thought. It was fascinating examining the wealth of small finds of jewellery, coins and parts of military equipment.

   
 

Two volunteers showed me an illustration of what the site may have look like in the second century. Roman Caerleon is one of the top visitors site in Wales. This dig will reveal new treasures.

MP remembered well

  

What a marvellous way to be remembered.

Yesterday would have been the late David Taylor MP’s 64^th birthday. Very sadly he died of an unexpected heart attack on Boxing Day 2009.  David was a fit, non-smoker and non-drinker and no one suspected that he had any serious health problems.

 

I am writing a biography of him and I have spent time in his old constituency interviewing his family and close friends. While I knew him well as an MP, I know very little of his life before parliament and outside of parliament. Of course, he had a fascinating hinterland.

Yesterday there was a walk dedicated to his memory. It started with a surprise announcement. Coronet Copse will henceforth be known as the David Taylor Wood. It’s situated near his home village of Heather near Ashby-de-la Zouch.  The National Forest and Forestry Commission made the decision yesterday. David had no interest in money or fame. But he loved nature and especially the national Forest. He would have prized the notion of having a forest dedicated to his memory.

I will be back in the village of Heather (pronounced Hee-ther) this week to seek out more anecdotes about his past. It’s still a mystery how such a modest unassuming man made it through the macho-world of candidate selection that is the gateway to choice for election. From everyone, including political opponents, there is warmth and affection for a good man and sadness because of his untimely death.

 

The more I learn about David , the more determined I become to try to do justice to his memory. It’s a daunting task.

Who's smiling now?

Which political party members are smiling after 100 days of coalition? The answer is a bit of a surprise.

The Tories have gorged on the Daily Mail diet of low hanging fruit. It will turn nauseous on them. Yes there is applause in scrapping speed cameras as part of the armistice of 'a war against motorists' that never was. When the increased toll of children killed in future accidents happens, the vengeance of the road safety lobby will be merciless.

Squeezing the poor and the scroungers are populist threats against the despised. When 20 million people discover they are being hammered, retribution will be fierce. Deluded, the Tories have leapt over a precipice. Like cartoon characters they will tread water in mid-air for a little while, then they will plummet to their doom.

The Lib-Dems have enjoyed an unexpected thrill of power. Clegg opened his first Question Time by reminding the Commons that he was the first Liberal since Lloyd George to answer PM questions. His euphoria was short lived. Clumsy,  wooden-brained and hot=mouthed, his view on the Iraq war made our troops liable to charges of war crimes.

Even if Charles Kennedy is 'Liberal til he dies' many others of their  MPs are on the edge of despair. Ming Campbell, Bob Russell, Mike Hancock and Simon Hughes are tormented souls. Not all of them will fight the next General Election under LibDems colours. Clegg has admitted that their local elections results next year will be dreadful. My view of the coalition Pantomime Horse is still a Tory head held high in the air to be admired and a LibDem rear end that delivers the crap.

Labour is broke and in impotent opposition. There are consolations. After thirteen years punch-drunk from repeated criticism, opposition is a heady brew of being right and virtuous of all issues. The coffers of the party will fill up. Even without a leader, Labour is level pegging with the Tories on 37 points. Seats that we lost in May will now be won handsomely if they  fought now. Oh for a by-election.

Our annual conference will be the coronation of a very bright new leader with fresh ideas. 

It's Labour that's  smiling now.

Endemic cruelty

The latest propaganda ploy to shore up collapsing public support for the Afghanistan War is to claim that Nato is fighting for women's rights. The writer that I respect most on this subject is James Fergusson. He writes today: 

The maltreatment of women is by no means exclusive to the Taliban, nor even to Pashtuns. It is practised all over Afghanistan, including by the state that Nato troops are currently dying to support. Witness the police chief, General Abdul Jabar, who remarked after Bibi Sanubar was killed: "This was not the way she should have been punished. She should have been arrested and we should have had proof that she'd had an illegal affair. Then she should have come to court and faced justice." As a contributor to arrse.co.uk, the informal Army Rumour Service website, remarked last week: "I'm guessing a guilty verdict by the Afghan courts would be followed by a stoning? What exactly are we fighting this war for?" The emotive observation on Time magazine's ghastly cover – "What happens if we leave Afghanistan" – was spurious, because it is happening anyway, while we are still there.

I am certain, after 14 years of encounters with the Taliban, that they are not beyond redemption. It seems a paradox, but in the 1990s the Taliban leadership did not see themselves as oppressors of women but as their defenders. 

Recent Tweets

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