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July 23, 2008

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Johnny Boy

Re. All over for McCain?

Mr Flynn did write his prediction precisely 1 month ago and in the interim Obama has lost a 15 point lead in the polls to McCain who is now level on the latest polls. So much for Mr Flynns perceptive powers - maybe bias is effecting his judgement?

Obama is being exposed as a politcal camillion flip-flopping on policies such as the biggest issue, energy and high oil prices - no-drilling, er no I support drilling! Taking everyone for idiots and suggesting Americans should all 'pump up their tyres' rather than drill for oil offshore doesn't help!

Regards My Flynns talk about "gaffs" I think Obama is just as error-prone. And picking Joe Biden as running-mate already has a Republican advert running showing Biden endorsing McCain and saying Obama is "too inexperienced to be President".

Fingers crossed for McCain as nothing will ruin Americans standards of living more than the Big Pharma, Enviro-Fraudsters Socialist agenda of Obama.

Huw O'Sullivan

You may say that some of their domestic policies effect their international policies and to a limited extent you are correct of course, but it is very limited.
Obama is not going to end the pointless war on drugs, his backers would not wish it.
The previous Democrat president had admitted to smoking pot, albeit without inhaling.

Obama has actually admitted using both pot and cocaine, in his biography.
"Junkie. Pothead. That's where I'd been headed: the final, fatal role of the young would-be black man. ... I got high [to] push questions of who I was out of my mind," he wrote in the book.
Which weirdly enough means he has to be seen as strong on the drugs issue as anything else would leave him vulnerable.

If Americans wanted change, they would not be voting for Republican or Democratic candidates with their manufactured divides where style rather than substance is the real differentiator.


paulflynn

America's domestic policy has a huge influence on us. it's their domestic drugs policy through he UN hat has locked the world into a fialed war on drugs, Their social, health and edcation policies have great influence here.

John

I think Obama is our only hope for change from the USA it will be sad day if McCain gets in.

He was asked about drug Policy in Rolling Stone
I Quote
"The point is that if we're putting more money into education, into treatment, into prevention and reducing the demand side, then the ways that we operate on the criminal side can shift. I would start with nonviolent, first-time drug offenders. The notion that we are imposing felonies on them or sending them to prison, where they are getting advanced degrees in criminality, instead of thinking about ways like drug courts that can get them back on track in their lives — it's expensive, it's counterproductive, and it doesn't make sense."


Ever the old cynic how much of this rhetoric will change into the usual prohibtionist line that the USA has been forcing down the throat of the world who knows, but at least its a glimmer of light for the US citizen who is arrested every 38 seconds for non violent drug possesion.

Huw O'Sullivan

I think on the polling it is an equivalent of the polling re tory voters in Kinnock's last general election.
Plenty of people who in polls are going to say they will vote one way when in fact they will vote the other.

It is surely irrelevant to outside observers what the different candidates domestic agenda may be, the only thing that will affect us is their international agenda and Obama winning will not mark an improvement there. He has gone a lot further than simply making assuring noises in relation to issues for the benefit of the ignorant american public. On the middle east, he has clearly set out his stall and it is more of the same.

Obviously I am no more gifted in prophecy than you are, and in some ways would be moderately pleased to be wrong, however, fancy making a bet on whether the next US president is the Republican or the Democrat Paul?

Paul Flynn

Thanks Huw o'Sullivan. I greatly appreciate the detailed comment. Much of what you say is true. But the similarities of the approach of the two candidates is the lowest common denominator of what is acceptable for the election of a president based on the public (mis) understanding of international affairs.

The only person I met on my recent visit to the U.S who thought that Obama would lose was a black woman who thought the racial issue would be a major factor. This is still what the polls are saying. The US polls are sophisticated and usually reliable. There is detailed polling that is even more encouraging.

The differences between the two on domestic policy is a wide. The anti-Bush vote is very strong and should finish McCann.

Huw O'Sullivan

Sort of a postscript

People should remember that americans of the United States are not particularly keen on geographic knowledge.

US citizens from the US state of New Mexico, regularly have problems convincing other americans that New Mexico is in fact in the US. We can expect their geographic inexactitude to get worse the further they stretch and the middle east is the other side of the world.

http://www.heritage.org/Press/Commentary/ED072596b.cfm

Huw O'Sullivan

True Bush does not have declining mental faculties, that is the nature of someone who has no mental faculties to begin with, they cannot decline. Reagan had alzheimer's after leaving office and from reports during his presidency it seems clear he had alzheimer's while he was president. The US right think of him as one of the great presidents.
Intellectual ability is not highly prized in political representatives in the US, a great many people there do not like voting for people they think are smarter than themselves or at least who they think, think they are smarter than them.
In truth it makes not a jot of difference to the rest of the world, which candidate wins the election, their policies will be the same, some seem to think however that because the democrat style is more pleasant they would prefer a democrat to win.
There is also a strong desire to see a first happen and the idea that the US could have its first black president is appealing.
It won't happen, because at the moment, the US is not ready to elect a black president and quite frankly won't be at least until the Republicans put forward a black candidate.
In the last few presidential elections, the americans who vote have split almost 50/50 between republicans and democrats, do we really think that some people who while not overtly racist might at the very least just not vote for a black president.
Can we imagine that some racists who do not normally vote might just vote for the other major candidate just to try to keep a black man from being president and is there not the possibility that some democrats might switch allegiance.
The amount of swing needed in actual votes for Obama to lose is tiny. So he will lose and we will just have to wait for america to elect a black president at another time.
Probably just as well in this case, Obama has taken up the Bush administration attitude to Iran and has claimed it is the greatest threat to Israel. He has also taken up the position that he will stop at nothing to prevent Iran getting a nuclear weapon, this of course in the face of US intelligence that has stated clearly that Iran does not have a nuclear weapons programme. McCain is no less bellicose in his speeches and yet I still feel that while he is likely to be as bad, there is the tiniest hope that as he is in a real sense to old to be bought or manipulated in the sense of being offered plum positions after his term in office and the strong likelihood that he will not even be tempted to want a second term, he will actually have a freer hand and the possibility of a more temperate attitude towards international politics means that people who hope for peace may well be hoping that he is the lesser of two evils.

Paul Flynn

Even with Bush foul-ups, he did not have the problem that Ronald Reagan and Harold Wilson had. If it is was was many fear, McCain should be quietly replaced rather be allowed to crumble in the campaign or even in office. These worries are now be expressed by political friend and foe. There are simple tests that can determine whether the problems is likely to cause deterioration.

I believe that Obama will be the runaway winner anyway, but it not unreasonable to ask candidates to publish their medical records when they are going for the job of the foremost leader in the world.

Neil Harding

"They are the errors that afflict everyone in public life, word stumbles, long vacant pauses, and name confusions. But the impression is dire for a person who wants to be president".

Really? It still got Bush elected - twice!

greg

To be fair Paul, McCain at least remembers which committees he sits on:

http://hotair.com/archives/2008/07/23/video-obama-says-banking-my-committee-not-on-it/

He probably also knows how many states there are in the US:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EpGH02DtIws

Glad to hear that baseball is still alive and well in South Wales, I remember playing as a child!

Regards

Greg

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