November 8th

Certain?

Ten days ago I suggested the 28th of October or the 8th of November for the General Election. It's now the 8th.

Gordon still has probably not decided but he  is becoming trapped into a corner where his silence leaves him little choice. Parliament will resume the week after next. Enough time for a few big speeches, especially one on Iraq , then the 'wash-up' of legislation outstanding and then off to the campaign. It will give us all the ample time of three weeks.

The only obstacle that can stop Gordon now would be a catastrophic collapse of  Labour's poll ratings during the Tory conference next week. They will gain a few points but not enough to make a serious threat. The only cloud on Gordon's horizon is the voters known hostility to being called out for an election unnecessarily. They usually punish the party responsible.

The calculation has to be made on how comfortable is Labour's lead. It's looks solid enough now. Nail-biting time at Number 10.

Rubble
There will be  fresh fizz to the Chartist celebrations in Newport this year.

The threat to demolish the well loved mosaic has galvanised local anger and pride. Sadly it cannot be saved in its present form. The son of the artist who created the work 30 years go told me his father insisted on it being vandal-proof. That also meant removal-proof. An attempt to take away a test piece failed and ended up with a  bucket full of rubble.

But the original drawings exists and it can be rebuilt. There are good options. The  concern has inspired the creation of a new local campaign group named Accent Newport Trust.

They have organised a full anniversary  event for November 3rd starting at 10.30 at St Mary's Institute Stow Hill - the place where they hope to establish a Chartist Heritage Centre.

It's a great story. George Shell, a 17-year-old cabinetmaker, wrote a letter to his mother the night of November 3rd saying, “If I die tomorrow, I do so in a noble cause.” He was killed inside the Westgate Hotel. The twenty martyred Chartists were buried in unmarked graves in the Cathedral Cemetery. A year later their relatives used the cloak of night to secretly visit their graves and lay tributes of laurel leaves. That tradition was revived 16 years ago. Newportians on the afternoon of November 4th  will gather  4.300 pm in the cemetery to honour the sacrifice of our forebears.

See you there.

Candlelight Blog
Iain Dale has knocked out a cracking read in his 'Guide to Political Blogging. He writes "Blogging used to be the equivalent of the strange person at the back of the branch meeting who was very passionate about something, but no one else could work out what or why"

Now Dale has amassed 500 of Britain's best Blogs.  I am very flattered to be included at number 96. My blog has been going only since April and is in the 'new' category. Even more encouraging, someone has put it at  number 13 in the Labour list, at 5 in the Welsh top 20 and
4 in the best MPs. The competition is not as hot here.

One sage piece of advice about not blogging late at night. It happened to Recess Monkey. He announced the demise of Mrs Thatcher. He still wins the prize for number one Labour blogger.

In addition to the list there are brief punchy articles including one by Allt-yr-yn's Jon Worth. He was secretary of allt-yr-yn labour party 10 years ago. He's is not a Eurocrat and Uber-blogger. Well worthing seeing.

Craic
There are signs that one opposition party is starting to campaign tomorrow. Welcome to Newport west. They have a lot of catching up to do.

My programme of work is full for the next two weeks with constituency chores  and other work. Three weeks is ample for a short sharp campaign. This will be my sixth General Election campaign. Few of them have made great differences.

Since the seat was formed here in Newport West in 1983 the majorities have swung from a Tory one of 500 to a Labour one of 14,000 and then to 6,000. The same job can be done with a majority of one as with one of 30,000.

Candidates tend to exaggerate the values of our campaigns. The results of  most elections can be accurately forecast on the first day. I As always, I will work around the clock and have a great romp of a campaign. Our plan will be, of course, call on thousands of doors and meet the constituency again.  They are nearly all good friends so the craic is great.

My first campaign in 1987 was breathlessly exciting. It was a Tory seat with a tiny majority. Labour were not doing well in the polls  and the - now Labour -Tory candidate was popular. It could have gone either way.

This time the excitement will be the same with the prospect of remarkable fourth term of a Labour Government beckoning. Don't disappointment us with the date, Gordon. I've started to rearrange my diary for November.

Comments

[Iain Dale]

You have to be joking. Some of us still have tribal loyalties. Ratherlike your good self!

[Paul Flynn]

That's nice of you. You were very wary of the Internet in 1999 - especially about publishing a book on it. There were understandable commercial reasons because you saw the web as the evil threat to the printed word.

Who would have guessed that you have blossomed into the Blog Uber-Fuehrer? It's a whole new world to me. Who can tell where it will take us?

The melding of the parties is getting loathsome. Will you be following Berkow and Mercer into the Brown embrace?

[Iain Dale]

Paul, glad you enjoyed the blogging book. Almost as a good a read as Dragons Led by Poodles!

Iain