Who to believe? Bookies or pollsters?
Ladbrokes have revealed their betting odds ahead of next year's general election. Based on their work around the Scottish referendum earlier this month, the odds were a more accurate prediction of the result than the polls. So, who do we trust? Bookmakers or pollsters?
It looks like a good picture for Labour in Wales. Newport West is a red-hot favourite at 1/100 along with Blaneu Gwent, Caerphilly, Cardiff South, Cardiff West, Cynon Valley, Islwyn, Merthyr Tydfil, Neath, Ogmore, Rhondda, Swansea East and Torfaen. Labour looks set to take back Cardiff North at 1/6 next year compared to 7/2 (Con). Unfortunately there are no odds for Cardiff Central.
Recent polling by ITV Wales suggest three seats are projected to change hands in Wales next year. Labour is expected to capture Cardiff Central from the Liberal Democrats and Cardiff North from the Conservatives, while the Tories are expected to take Brecon & Radnor from the Liberal Democrats.
The Ladbrokes results are interesting because Plaid Cymru thrashed Labour in the Ynys Mon Assembly by-election last year but the bookies think Labour will retain the seat at 1/4 compared to 3/1 (Plaid Cymru). So it's good news for Albert Owen. The Vale of Glamorgan looks to be just retained by the Conservatives at 8/15 (Con) and 11/8 (Lab). Should Alun Cairns be worried? The bookies seem to think so.