Today a settled smile on the face of Labour canvassers and a silent 'Thank you Nick' prayer. If the polls are right we are in third place. Fine. It translates in our crazy electoral mathematics into a Labour triumph.
Labour on 28%, Lib Dems on 30% and the Conservatives on 33% =. Labour 276 seats; Conservatives 245 seats; Lib Dems 100 seats; Others 29 seats. That is likely to lead to to Lab-Lib government. That not what anyone was expecting but it's far better than a Tory Government.
If this is the situation on May 6th, politics has metamorphosed- perhaps for ever. Cameron has blown it. The Lib-Dems may be crowing triumphantly on top of the dung-heap of expenses shame. A coalition of the best of Labour with the best of Lib-dems will be what the country wants. Cameronism will be vanquished. I would be back in parliament.
It's a seductive dream.
Today's Electoral Calculus is encouraging
Newport West
County/Area: Mid Glamorgan and Gwent (Wales)
MP Paul Flynn (LAB)Electorate 60,286 Turnout 59.27% Top 2005 Votes 2005 Share Predicted Votes Chance of winning LAB 16,020 44.84% 37.28% 
54.6% CON 10,563 29.56% 33.88% 40.3% LIB 6,398 17.91% 17.40% 4.5% OTH 1,472 4.12% 8.20% 0.6% NAT 1,277 3.57% 3.24% 0.0% LAB Majority 5,457 15.27% Pred Maj 3.40% Results for 2005 implied from new boundary calculations
"If this is the situation on May 6th, politics has metamorphosed- perhaps for ever. "
Yes, because if Labour came third yet had the most seats and tried to rule over us, we'd march on Westminster and hang you by your scrawny necks.
Posted by: Kay Tie | April 17, 2010 at 11:59 AM
Anyway, aren't you getting a little presumptuous about your impending victory by posting here before May 7th?
Posted by: Kay Tie | April 17, 2010 at 02:16 PM
Tut. Tut" KayTie, only the truth always. I have campaigned for 30 years for a reformed voting system. If the early post debate polls remain an accurate (they probably will not) the result will be the absurd one I indicated. Incredibly the Tories in Wales are against PR.
Posted by: Paul Flynn | April 18, 2010 at 06:28 AM
Kay Tie. Sorry my dear, but because of the erosion of civil liberties by the Labour Government under the guise of anti-terrorism, any march on parliament will result in your arrest as a terrorist.
lol, bring a camera as well! You'll get even more attention from the police for that!
Thank God Labour is being given an almighty slap across the face. I remember months ago contesting Paul's opinion about a genetic database and ID cards, which seeming had fallen on deaf ears. But the economy and civil rights abuses was the cherry on the top of the delicious scandal-corruption mountain.
Don't get me wrong, the only thing worse than Labour are the Tories. Eternally for some.
Posted by: Gaz | May 01, 2010 at 08:22 PM