Final odds for reform Speaker

 The old parliament is dead. Long live the new one.The Hustings are finished but the plotting roars on.

 All the candidates are silent. Secretly they are egging their supporters to play pundits for tomorrow's vote. I have had no recent contact with any candidate but I did my bit this morning on the Welsh opt-out from the Politics Show. I shall be performing on the Green at the crack of dawn tomorrow for Welsh Radio and Radio Cymru. 

The Telegraph ineptly interfered today. The rest of the media stupidly reported their attack on John Berckow and Margaret Beckett as 'new'. The stuff about Margaret was released under Freedom of Information last year. It was about claims made eight years ago! While the Telegraph deserves credit for releasing telling information that would not otherwise have been made public, they have now reverted to the previous Tory-graph ways. Their attacks concentrate on the two candidates they regard as 'socialist.' The electorate they are trying to influence is canny and sophisticated. Beckett and Bercow will gorge votes from the Telegraph malice trough.

The Hustings have revealed unexpected strengths and weaknesses. I have revised all my previous odds. My intended  vote is Bercow first, Beckett second and George Young third.

 

The expected order in which candidates will be eliminated is Shepherd, Lord, Dhanda, Cormack, Hazelhurst, Beith, Widdicombe, Young, Beckett and Bercow.

Alan Beith:Has gained support by his breezy amiable presentation. His solid Lib-Dems votes should get him past the first vote. He could well pick up extra votes and progress through the middle as the candidate no one dislikes. His major problem is the one he admits. He is a member of a small party.

Odds Were 8:1 Now 10-1

Margaret Beckett:

 Brilliant Hustings performer. She has concentrated on her reforming success in introducing Westminster Hall debates in the teeth of opposition from the traditionalists. She has a wealth of ministerial experience but continues to suffer because she has not been a backbencher since 1972. Suspected of shameless opportunism. As Speaker she would rescue her collapsing  career and secure her threatened seat at the next General Election.
Odds Were 10-1 now 5-1

Patrick Cormack: A more relaxed humorous Hustings performer. As an old headmaster he did not once order his audiences to fold their arms and sit up straight. In appealing for Labour votes, reminded MPs that he one of the handful of Tory MPs who voted against the introduction of the poll-tax in Scotland.

Odds Were 20-1 Now 10-1

George Young: Reminded Labour MPs that 79 of them them voted for him in the last contest for Speaker. 49 of them, including me, are still in the House. Still regarded as one of the top gentleman in the gentleman's Club.

Odds Were 8-1 Now 10-1

Frank Field: Almost certainly out of it. But could theoretically be nominated tomorrow.

Odds Were 6-1 Now 50:1

Ann Widdecombe: Gusty Hustings speaker. A comfort vote for the the huddled masses of distraught expenses-racked MPs seeking mothering and reassurance. Could pick up extra votes at the second stage of votes from the disgruntled and those acting out of devilment.

We need a long-term Speaker not a stop gap.

Odds Were 12-1 Now 6-1

John Bercow:   Has played safe at the Hustings. Has avoided verbal fireworks and concentrated on bread and butter issues. The Tories remain baffled. They do not know who he is and where he is going. Has been damaged by Margaret Beckett's Labour whips spoiler campaign. That could rebound and win some Tory support in the final vote.

Odds Were 2-1 Now 4-1

Parmjit Dhanda:

Engaging Hustings presentation. His hopes are realistically modest but he has gained attention and respect from his campaign. He is likely to be eliminated or he will withdraw after the first ballot.

Odds Were 25-1 Now 20-1

Alan Hazelhurst: Good but familiar Hustings performer. Has no convincing record as a reformer and he is associated with the Michael Martin regime. More 'singed' than other candidates by the expenses revelations. Says he would be a 'steady hand on the tiller'. Not what's wanted. We need to send the vessel off steaming in a new direction.

Odds Were 10-1 Now 15-1

Richard Shepherd: His hustings speeches have convinced the doubters that he is an alien. No convincing grasp of events in the world of this century. Is likely to be eliminated in first rounds.

Odds were 25:1 Now 50:1

Michael Lord: Hustings friendly, identifies 'modesty' as his main weakness. Has reminded MPs that he is the most reactionary candidate. He had hidden his technicolor bigotry behind his role as Deputy speaker.Another one who will walk the plank early

Odds Were 20:1 Now 40:1

Total number of British soldiers killed in Afghanistan = 169   

Comments

[Paul Flynn]

The rigmarole of seeking the Monarch's approbation yesterday was straight out of comic opera. No signs of modernisation there. Must be patient.

[Grant T]

Congratulations Speaker Bercow!

John Bercow was not my favoured candidate but has been elected in purely democrat way. I am sure he will make a good speaker and will do his best. I am just not sure whther he will be the reformer say Richard Shepherd would of been.

[Chris Carter]

Woohoo!
Congratulations to Bercow!

I certainly hope the publics voice is heard after this speaker election

I'd love to see:
Proportional Representation or some new form of voting to grant the vote to the people

An elected House of Lords

A written constitution - to put our rights in written text, not this ramshackle attempt at representing our rights

I would also like to remove the monarchy from its position, and fully democratise the United Kingdom

Whether all this is possible, I don't know, but I am truly optimistic for the future now that parliament is off the green mile after the expenses scandal.

[Grant T]

Just two candidates left; John Bercow and Sir George Young.

I want Sir George Young to win but I feel that John Bercow will be the next speaker.

[Grant T]

John Bercow - 179 votes
Sir George Young - 112 votes
Margaret Beckett - 74 votes
Sir Alan Haselhurst - 66 votes
Sir Alan Beith - 55 votes
Ann Widdecombe - 44 votes
Parmjit Dhanda - 26 votes, eliminated
Richard Shepherd - 15 votes, eliminated
Sir Patrick Cormack - 13 votes, eliminated
Sir Michael Lord - 9 votes, eliminated

--------------------------------------------

Two of my favourites have been eliminated. Sir George Young has my support in the second round.

[Craig]

I have recently left a post working with one of the country's leading organisations investigating climate change and I haven't heard about the research you're referring to. I would be very keen to read some, however. If you could send me some references, I'd really appreciate that.

And I think most people would agree that Ann is a character, so yes, I can see where my poor spelling caused confusion. I was, though, suggesting that she is a cariacture - in as much as she's a woman of very exagerated, black and white extremes and sees the world in over-simplification. The world isn't like that. There's not always a clear right and wrong.

[RPC]

I didn't know what you meant - I was torn between "character" and "cariacture".

As for letting the scientific community know about global cooling, they already know and it is from they that I get my information.

Back to who will be Speaker......

[Craig]

I apologise for my spelling mistake. Oddly, you knew what I meant which is probably more telling than anything you've said so far...

I'll let the science community that know that the world is cooling and that we're all barking up the wrong tree, too. Thanks for the info.

[RPC]

Craig said:

"The woman doesn't believe in climate change, for goodness sake..."

I think that most people believe in climate change - after all, it's been happening for centuries - but there is a lot of controversy surrounding anthropogenic global warming.

If Ann Widdecombe rejects that nonsense, that tax-raising ploy that is without observational foundation, since the world has been COOLING for the past ten years, she has just gone up another notch in my estimation.

But that's not what this thread is about. The last thing I want to do is to engage in a discussion about AGW.

[RPC]

Craig,

If Ann Widdecombe is, as you claim, totally out of touch with the general public, why is she the public's choice?

Btw, what kind of a word is "characerture"?

Do you mean character or cariacture?

However politically incorrect it may be, I have always suspected the opinions of those who have not mastered the meaning and/or spelling of their native language.

[Craig]

The woman doesn't believe in climate change, for goodness sake...

She changed religion in protest when women could be ordained as priests in the Church of England. She's voted against equal rights for homosexuals every time she's has the opportunity. What a step backwards that would be to have such a person in such an important position in UK government.

[Craig]

Anne Widdecome does not connect with me. I see her as a spectacle, and a scary one at that. Her views are driven by very conservative christianity, spouts a lot of 'traditional family values' rhetoric that isn't particlualry reformist in my opinion, and is completely out of touch with the general public.

The public know her because she's a characerture, has written some books and has been on TV. Just because the public might want someone they recognise doesn't mean they are the right person for the job!

[RPC]

Haselhurst now. Sir Alan to those who who accede to titular importance.

Boring, boring, boring.....more crafted speeches and attempted humour that arouses little more than a titter from the House and only a groan from me.

"Encourage towards consensus"!!! what sort of leadership is that? Who wants some watered down, consensual version of necessary reform? It was that kind of consensus and lack of firm leadership that exacerbated the expenses scandal, culminating in the publication of so-called "redacted" information that further diminished parliament in the eyes of the public.

We don't want consensus, we want impartiality, but we also want and need firm guidance.

Parmjit Dhanda speaking now.

I can't see the point of commenting on his speech....he's the token ethnic minority candidate without the necessary experience to ever be capable of taking on the role of Speaker of the House.

[RPC]

To continue my running commentary - I do hope you appreciate this Mr Flynn, a front-seat view of the antics on stage, so to speak - Michael Lord has already bored the pants off me with his carefully constructed speech; it is not a Churchillian declamation that the country needs at this moment (and nor should the House of Commons require same if their honest desire is to reconnect with the public) it is an honest and sincere and pragmatic approach to an unprecedented loss of faith by the the electorate in those whom they elect.

Oh no, Sir Patrick Cormack has just done a Churchill reference! How wrong can MPs be!

Get off the oratorium and start to talk to us with sincerity and purpose. Stop speechifying, just for once.

[RPC]

Richard Shepherd sounds sincere, but he has put his finger on the biggest problem currently facing parliament - a need to reconnect with the public.

That's where Ann Widdecombe scores above all other candidates.

I mean, which average member of the public has a clue who Richard Shepherd is, however good a candidate for Speaker he might be?

There's no way he will be able to reconnect with the public.

[RPC]

Of course one recognises the broader remit of a Speaker than just dealing with the expenses scandal. For starters, backbenchers have to be heard; they have all but been silenced under Martin's Speakership.

Having just listened to the speeches of the candidates for Speaker, to date, Beckett was as boring as one would expect from a caravanner, Widdecombe showed she meaned business concerning the need to give backbenchers a voice, Beith and Young were so boring I switched off, and Bercow sounds like a parody of himself - Bremner would have a field day. He's still talking while I type, but has yet to say a word that I find sincere or anything other than crafted.

I'm still lilstening to the speeches, though.....

[Craig]

I think that it's important to remember that the post of speaker is a much broader one than just dealing with the recent expenses fiasco. When the MPs make their choice of speaker I hope they choose the best person to do complete job, not the one best placed to dust-pan-and-brush the most recent scandal.

[RPC]

More fool MPs if they elect a Speaker only to embarrass the party opposite - as I said in a previous post that caused so many ructions.

The public has already had more than enough of MPs playing feather-my-own-nest and let's-annoy-the-party-opposite. We're looking for people of integrity to represent us, not morons who want only to play silly power games or line their own pockets.

I warn you, Mr Flynn, the public will not forgive the election of Bercow or Beckett to the Speaker's chair.

I am in touch with public opinion in this matter. Are you?

I, for one, shall actively campaign for open revolt if Beckett, the woman who believes that replete-with-plants hanging baskets are a legitimate expense to claim from the public purse in pursuit of parliamentary duties, is elected to the Speakership.

[Paul Flynn]

I hope you are wrong Tony. We will soon know whether the Commons is going to choose the best reformer. The candidates speeches will be crucial.

[Tony]

It would be nice if the vote went to a out and out reformer committed to bringing Parliament into the 21st century

..and yet... stories abound of candidates being chosen to cause maximum embarrassment to the other party..

given the background to when this election takes place an important critieria would be a Speaker than was going to address the concerns of the public but if MP's choose a candidate that is obviously not a reformer then we have yet another PR own goal ..