Row magnified to war?

Chemistry wrong

Are the motives for today’s clash in South Ossetia attributable to personal antagonism between two men?

I have never met Putin but I know Mikhail Saakashvili well. I first hosted a meal for the two of us in the House of Common twelve years ago. I was then chairing the Georgia Parliament Group as Newport is twinned with Kutaiasi. Saakashvili was then Georgia’s most promising politician and he was being groomed by the Americans.

Later I saw a lot of him when he led the Georgian group at the Council of Europe. Ambitious, able and resourceful, he was clearly heading to be Georgia’s president. But why anyone would want the job is hard to fathom.

Georgia has multiple crises. Not just in South Ossetia but in Abkhazia and Ajara. The crises have been festering since Georgia declared its independence. One intriguing theory for the present clash was suggested when I was in the Pentagon two months ago.

One official said there was deep personal animosity between Putin and Saakashvili. He said, ‘ Putin is short and in a mid life crisis. Saakashvili is tall and in the prime of life. They hate each other". The rows between the two nations have rumbled on with little armed conflict until now.

The bad personal chemistry between the two leaders may well have precipitated the present alarming explosion.

Political integrity

If there was a prize in politics for loyalty to a failing political cause, it would be won by Robert Griffiths.

All his considerable talents and energies are ploughed into a party that has only 1,000 members in the UK. His career started promisingly. He was a ‘chocolate soldier’ working for Dafydd Elis Thomas when he was an MP. His wages were paid by the Rowntree Trust as a boost to small parties.

He was a successful lecturer and could have carved a brilliant career in many fields. Instead he has stuck to the Communist Party in spite of electoral obliteration. In the Monmouth constituency in the Assembly Election, the party amassed two votes. Their average for other constituencies was less derisory. But the party chances of electoral victory here are nil.

Perhaps he takes comfort that his party still wins elections in Cyprus and the Asian sub-continent, plus a bit of a revival in Eastern Europe. There is also China but perhaps that does not help.

Robert courteously welcomed me to the Morning Star stand on the Eisteddfod Maes. He even interested me in a freshened up translation into Welsh of the Communist Manifesto. It’s on my reading list. But not exactly on the top.

In these days of political opportunism or cynicism, Robert’s selfless steadfastness is admirable. No-one could question his self-sacrificing sincerity.

Junk news

Why do they slavishly follow the Daily Mail Agenda. I had a call from Radio Five Live last night and the Western Mail this afternoon seeking comments on a two month old story.

It was on the 6th of June that a LibDem MP tabled an EDM. It was signed by a Tory, three other Lib Dems and 17 Labour MPs. It was an old issue that is raised regularly. Should we have a choice of oath for MPs? Many of us are uncomfortable with our subject status, swearing personal loyalty to a person who will one day be King Charles. It make a great deal more sense to be swear loyalty to the country and its citizens.

It’s understandable that the Mail stirs up a tired old story in August.

But why do the other media lapdog behind them?

Comments

[J Stewart]

While this country has a Monarch, it is appropriate that his Ministers swear an oath of allegiance to him. We're not yet a Republic, thank God.

I seem to remember that the last time the Monarch was got rid of, only a short time passed before his restoration. The people got thoroughly fed up with a puritan imposing his idea of how life should be lived. Cromwell has, of course, reincarnated in the form of Liam Donaldson.

I was a Republican until I discovered New Labour - the effect is shattering.

[paulflynn]

Liam Donaldson is a second Cromwell??.....I think Irelnd should be warned.

[Huw O'Sullivan]

Who would have thought it would be OC and not JC who had a second coming.

[J Stewart]

Rollo,

I've tried to do as you suggest and look again at Arnett's point about RR but the server is failing.

I suspect that the explanation might well be that, as a scientist used to a methodology in which variables can be controlled and measured and clear findings established, Arnett might not be happy with a reduced RR: the lower the RR the more tenuous the finding, the greater the number of 'variables' that have to be factored in, the less confidence that can be placed in the findings. So, he might very well be aware that a lower RR is accepted practice, but disagree that it is acceptable practice.

[J Stewart]

So sorry,

I've obviously posted my comment on the wrong thread.

[FreedomAndTruth]

What do you think of this article?

"U.S. Attacks Russia Through Client State Georgia"....

http://www.infowars.com/?p=3848

[Huw O'Sullivan]

As an admitted anti american I won't say much about this except that warning signs in the blog are
"Saakashvili was then Georgia’s most promising politician and he was being groomed by the Americans."
An American official said
"there was deep personal animosity between Putin and Saakashvili. He said, ‘ Putin is short and in a mid life crisis. Saakashvili is tall and in the prime of life."

On the other hand of course, Russia is invading and killing people and while the Americans have been winding up the Russians for some time now, ultimately Russias response is down to the Russians.

[PaulFlynn]

Thank Huw. My sympathy is very much with the Georgians because I know many of them mainly because of the twinning link with Newport. Many Georgians have visited and studied here. Some have settled here permanently. The present president has stronger links with the USA than either of his two predecessors. America is unlikely to stand by and watch Georgian land being violated - but that might not include South Ossetia.

A journalist I respect a great deal, Edward Lucas, has written an alarming book about the new threat from Russia. They certainly behaved abominably in Chechnya.

It';s hideous mess. The only thing that the UK can do is encourage a cease fire and hope for the best.

[Huw O'Sullivan]

The Russian history as you say with Chechnya is despicable but of course all countries with aggressive tendencies were given a big boost by the US/UK action against Iraq and the world community moral authority terminally undermined by the same.

The Russians have certainly done a lot to engineer the situation, my point is merely that they need no help to do so but the Americans have unfortunately and as usual helped to create and foster tension and mistrust making a peaceful resolution to any level of argument or conflict less likely.
I just feel it is important to point it out as the americans are so often given a bye on these things and the US public tend to imagine themselves as the white hats everywhere rather than the black hats that they in fact are.