Martin Shipton's Fable

No ambiguity, or mis-reading the result for the Welsh prize for fiction next year. There will be one outright winner and I hereby nominate him. The tale is one that proves imagination beyond bounds.

"If you are sitting comfortably I’ll begin.

Once upon a time there lived a little boy named  Martin. He was having a very sad day. None of his friends would talk to him and it was raining. Martin had nothing to write about.

One of his naughty friends who had eaten too many wine gums played a trick on him. He told Martin that when King Rhodri went, either Prince Peter or Princess Eluned would come from far away places to rule the land. Martin knew that King Rhodri’s friends wanted to be king and they would be very cross if anyone came from a foreign land when Rhodri goes. But silly Martin told everyone the story. He said that two of Rhodri’s friends would give up their places at Rhodris’s court to Peter and Eluned.

The next day, Rhodri’s friends stamped their feet and said that they not leave the court. They told Martin that only Rhodri’s friends could take his place. They all laughed at Martin and said that he might have had too many wine gums. Some said his story could happen only in the Never Never land of Mail in the West. Martin was sad. It was raining again.

He lived unhappily ever after.’

For cynics who do believe in fairy tales see (below)*

http://www.walesonline.co.uk/news/wales-news/2008/0 8/28/we-won-t-resign-to-make-way-for-a-successor-to-rhodri-say-ams-91466-21622190/

Obama omen

In November 2006, I have the good luck to be in Boston for the election of the Governor. There was a key election between a black Democrat male candidate and a white Republican woman candidate.

The republican was favorite until she tried the race card with a disgraceful advert which linked the Democrat Deval Patrick with rape. He is a defence lawyer and had the task occasionally of defending rapists. Along with with fellow members of a select committee I attended the final candidates' debate.

It was a fascinating contest. The Republican candidate was a seasoned conservative performer and deputy Governor, there was an out of the closet gay Green candidate, a hopeless businessman with a brain and a mouth the same size as Jeremy Clarkson's, and the talented idealistic Deval Patrick.

The republican - democratic dog-fight was a foretaste of the coming battle with Obama and McCain. The result, I believe, will be similar. Patrick, against the odds, won 57% of the vote. He became the first ever African American Governor of the Commonwealth of Massachusetts

*

Fromthe WesterMail

The speculation followed concerns expressed by some party members, both inside and outside the Assembly, that the likely leadership candidates all had serious drawbacks.

For Mr Hain or Ms Morgan to join the race, they would have to become AMs. Those involved in the speculation mooted the possibility of Neath AM Gwenda Thomas resigning to let Mr Hain fight a by-election in the seat he represents at Westminster.

They also suggested that Clwyd South AM Karen Sinclair, who is seriously ill, could resign on the grounds of ill health, allowing Ms Morgan to fight a by-election.

There is no suggestion that either Mr Hain or Ms Morgan have been parties to the speculation or were even aware of it.

As pointed out in the Western Mail yesterday, there would be serious risks in both scenarios, even assuming that the two big- hitting politicians were inclined to stand for the Assembly in such circumstances.

While Mr Hain won a healthy majority of more than 12,000 in Neath at the last general election in 2005, the margin of Mrs Thomas’s victory over the Plaid Cymru candidate in last year’s Assembly election was less than 2,000.

Equally, Ms Sinclair had a majority of only 1,119 in Clwyd South over the Conservatives. In a political climate where Labour is unpopular, it is doubtful whether either seat would be held at a by-election.

Yesterday, both Mrs Thomas and Ms Sinclair made it clear they had no intention of quitting their seats. Welsh Labour spokesman Martyn Williams said: “Gwenda Thomas has told me she was elected for a four-year term of office, and that she fully intends to serve as AM for Neath until the next election in 2011.

“Karen Sinclair also has no intention of resigning her seat in Clwyd South. She is focusing on recovering from her illness, and looks forward to being back at work as soon as possible.”

Mr Williams confirmed that candidates for the Welsh Labour leadership had to be AMs. “Technically, the post held by Rhodri Morgan is leader of the Assembly Labour group. Only AMs can stand for that role,” he said.

The speculation about Mr Hain follows his resignation as Welsh Secretary and Work and Pensions Secretary earlier this year.

Even if he is not prosecuted for failing to declare donations to his unsuccessful Labour deputy leadership campaign on time, it is thought unlikely that he will be reappointed to Gordon Brown’s Cabinet.

According to a suggested theory, he would rather end his political career as First Minister of Wales than as a backbencher at Westminster.

There are doubts, however, as to whether he could win an election for Welsh Labour’s leadership. A significant number of Welsh politicians did not support him in the deputy leadership battle.

Political commentator Dr Denis Balsom, who edits the Wales Yearbook, said: “Peter Hain standing for the leadership of Welsh Labour is an interesting idea, but there are serious procedural difficulties, not least the question of timing.

“Nevertheless, it could happen if there was a real groundswell of opinion in the party.”

Eluned Morgan refused to comment and Mr Hain could not be contacted last night.

Comments

[Kerry]

Hi Paul. fancy doing this for Iain Dale?

http://kerry-mccarthy.blogspot.com/2008/08/memories-cant-wait.html

P.S. I wondered where the smokers had got to - but I only got a few hundred comments; not quite as many as you!

[paulflynn]

Thank Kerry. I'll think about this one.
The smokers are still lingering but on their last puff, I think on the 'Bad medicine' postings.

Love your blog.

[Baneswell boy]

Do you think Rhodri Morgan might be persuaded to carry on as leader for the full four-year term?

If not, who's your money on? Had a discussion on this in the Red Lion on Stow Hill earlier (no, we don't just talk about the rugby!) and we came to the conclusion that the no-nonsense Mrs Hart might be just what Wales needs. Scary thought?

[PaulFlynn]

Thanks Baneswell Boy. I spent an hour with Rhodri today at Leo Abse's funeral. He seems in fine form and health. I wish he would stay on.

I'm trying to keep out of matters that are devolved. Stating my preference may not be helpful.

Good luck to the Red Lion Brains Trust. Hope you come up with some good ideas on rugby, as well as politics.