Bush's 'Cuba' crisis ?

The bloody horror of South Ossetia is a profound shock. No one expected an area with a population of less than 100,000 to be the subject of a threatening stand off between the USA and Russia. This could be Bush’s Cuba crisis.

My sympathy is very much with the Georgians because I know many of them through the twinning link with Newport. Many Georgians have visited and studied here. Some have settled in Newport permanently.

The present president of Georgia has stronger links with the USA than either of his two predecessors. America is unlikely to stand by and watch Georgian land being violated. The ambiguous status of South Ossetia might be negotiable, but Russia has bomb areas deep inside Georgia.

A journalist I respect a great deal, Edward Lucas, has written an alarming new book about the new threat from Russia. The previous Soviet hegemony, based on brute military force, has been replace by the power and hegemony of vast wealth.  Their new influence is dominating the economies of several former communist states in Eastern Europe. Hungarians and Czechs  feel they are being re-colonised.

But Putin still believes in brute force. Russia behaved abominably in Chechnya and largely escaped the world’s attention. They view the Caucasus with similar proprietorial  ambitions as their ‘near abroad.’

It’s a hideous mess. The only useful role the UK can play is to encourage a cease-fire and hope for the best. Fingers crossed.

Two PMs: same calamity

Both were brilliantly qualified for the job having controlled their countries finances. Both were the overwhelmingly the first choice  of their own parties as leaders. Both became prime ministers without an election.

Now Gordon Brown and Brian Cowen are both in deep trouble.   The crumbling world economy has hit  them. But their troubles will probably get worse. Leadership was the subject of this morning’s discussion on Radio Eireann. I was glad to be invited. It’s possible to take the comparison between Prime Minister and Taoiseach too far, but they share many virtues and failings.

Certainly Blair had qualities that both lack. He could persuade the Parliamentary Labour Party to believe almost anything with his “Elmer Gantry” revivalist speaking style. It’s an actor’s ability, whereby he has first to convince himself of the absolute truth of his cause.

Gordon Brown and Brian Cowen are intellectuals. Their views are moderated by their ability to see all sides of an argument. With them, there is always the unspoken ‘but’ moderating the conviction of all their statements. Gordon fails to carry his private warmth and humour into his public persona. The crackling thrilling electricity of a great communicator is never there.

Neither Brian nor Gordon has the stardust of Obama. He can move and inspire an audience more deeply that any other presidential candidate in living memory. A young American woman married to a Newport man told me that she felt the tears welling up on hearing Obama expressing her own highest ambitions and ideals for her country. Previously she had been turned off politics.

Future bleak here: future bright on the other side of the pond.

Comments

[Tony]

Interestingly the first signs of disquiet over Obama has started to surface. Not so much his 'yes we can' but that he represents too much change , too quickly and as a results the polls are running neck and neck in many of the swing states in the US. He's walked the US electorate to the end of the cliff but can he make them jump ?
And the parallels are here in the UK - Blair may well have pursuaded people that there was a 'new' compact and he did ask Frank Fields to 'think the unthinkable' - and when he did he quietly got rid of him.

II think where this is going leadership has to go with substance and if you don't have that then its just a matter of time before voters twig this - and you're gone. Blair now says he wishes he'd gone further with reforms of public services so he could be viewed as leadship / limited substance and yet Brown has the opposite problem - lots of perceived substance / limited leadership.
..and yet we get a continued litany of events where even the substance seems to be lacking and so you have the worst of both worlds
..and that is why he has the worst ratings of any PM

[PaulFlynn]

It's a shame that Obama has not raced ahead in the polls. I cannot envisage a majority voting for McCann after a hard campaign that will expose his many weaknesses.

[Huw O'Sullivan]

While it is not by a lot, Obama is still ahead in the polls and will undoubtedly remain so right up to the election, barring the occasional untoward individual polls.
The final poll, however, will have the rich white guy miraculously get the prize.
The election won't be rigged, it will just be, that the people who would never admit to a pollster what their real intentions and motivations are can do their final and binding poll in privacy.

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