Defeat multiplication

Hard fall

Give it a rest Welsh Labour.

The party is writhing in a self indulgent spasm of negativity. The prize goes to the person who can find the largest numbers of mistakes the party made. The reverse game is played when we win well.  We congratulate ourselves that everything we did was wonderful.

As Lesley Griffiths AM for Wrexham pointed out this morning, the value of pre-election campaigning is important but not the overwhelming determinant. Years of pre-campaigning happened in Bridgend and Wrexham with very different results.

We lost more in Wales this time because we were in a higher position four years ago compared with the debacle the party suffered in England. We had further to fall.

Campaigning is important. In Newport West we did more campaigning than at any time since 1987. Our result was halfway between what happened in Bridgend and in Wrexham. Intelligent dedicated pre-election campaigns are marvellous for building party morale but their effects on results are probably about 5% to 15% at most. The value of candidates is probably rarely more than 5% between a saint and a dolt.

The poor results have shocked some sleeping Labour supporters to rejoin the party. Two who left in my constituency over the Iraq war are so horrified at the Tory clowns who now represent them, they have now galvanized themselves into new political activity.

But there is one mountainous fact that determined last week’s disaster. Labour banks on an absolute minimum level of support of 26%. Last week it was down to 24% - a lower level than any other at any election in modern times.

If the General Election had been held in September/October last year Labour would have had a good majority. Pre-election campaigning would have had a marginal effect. But our 40% support in the polls would have guaranteed a good result. Had the Assembly Election been held in Brown's honeymoon months rather than Blair's dog days, the result would have been a Labour victory.

In 1968, Labour lost 12 council seats in Newport and won one. In 1972, we won 12 seats and lost one. The valuable work of the local council was virtually irrelevant.  It was ever thus.


Folk Fun

It started with a foul-up nineteen years ago.

It was a weekend when a few people expected a musical event at Tredegar House Newport. It was cancelled and Marcus of the Music Shop rapidly organized a mini folk event. He amassed one dance and one music group. But Tredegar House Folk Festival was born.

Now the splendid local committee has built a grand event that’s unmissible for any self-respecting Newportonian. The overseas visitors have to be restricted because of the overwhelming demand. Groups from the British Isles continue to flock here for three days of dance, music and song.
Recent additions include craft shows and Camra’s prize collection of medicinal beers. These were especially appreciated this year in the delightful Mediterranean weather.

Gwyl Werin Ty Tredegar will continue to grow from strength to strength. Well done!

Comments

[Jeff Jones]

One of the problems with council elections is that they are often seen by the electorate as electing someone to represent their little patch of God's earth rather than who will run the Council.In Bridgend I always saw the election as 39 mini elections.Another problem is that besides national factors the ordinary voters' view of the council is often clouded by the impression they gain from the local weekly or evening newspaper. This impression is often negative whoever runs the Council. This year on May 1st the local newpaper carried 3 negative stories about the Rainbow alliance which I had given them. In 2004, election day was dominated by a negative story about Labour. Labour did regain seats in Bridgend but the analysis I have produced for the local Labour party shows that the results were very patchy. In the Bridgend constituency Labour regained one seat but lost another. Seats in Porthcawl and Bridgend town saw Tory and Liberal Democrat votes increase even for weak candidates. Even the one Labour seat regained saw the successful candidate come behind both Tories and Liberal Democrats for the Town council seat. In Ogmore Labour regained 5 seats which were lost in 2004 for a variety of reasons including personal votes against the sitting councillors and more worrying the non counting of valid votes. In one seat we lost in 2004 to Plaid over 40% of the votes were never counted and in another there is evidence to suggest that postal votes were not counted. Even in Ogmore there are worrying trends particularly in areas where there have been new housing developments such as Pencoed. There was an increase in work rate in Bridgend before the election with mass leafletting the order of the day. It worked in some areas but obviously failed in others. It was particularly useful in actually telling the electorate the truth about the performance of some non Labour councillors over the previous 4 years. But if the Labour party holds up Bridgend as an example to follow it will be missing the real need to debate where the party shhould be going in the 20th century. You and I joined a long timne ago and are in it for the long haul no matter what we meet along the way. But if we are to attract new members who will be the councillors of the future we have to realise that we are a radical democratic socialist party on the centre left of the political spectrum. Unfortunately some of the policies we are pursuing at the moment are very unlikely to appeal to someone who thought the same as I did all those ago in 1968 when an old comrade now long gone asked me to join the People's Party.

[paulflynn]

Thanks Jeff.

Your detailed analysis stresses the foolishness of simplistic solutions. in Newport each ward was an unique contest. The local paper here, as probably everywhere, takes an anti-council line. But ward issues greatly influenced many results here. Undercutting everything was the damage caused by the 10p tax issue and loss of trust in politicians.